Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally in Canada. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods or our paper for further explanation).
Using data available up to the: 2020-09-02
Subnational estimates are available to download here and national estimates are available to download here.
Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated confirmed cases with a date of infection on the 2020-09-02) can be summarised by whether confirmed cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively (see the methods for details). Click on a subnational area (or search) to see subnational level estimates. This interactive visualisation is powered by RtD3(Gibbs, Abbott, and Funk 2020).
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| New confirmed cases by infection date | 692 (343 – 1164) |
| Expected change in daily cases | Unsure |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.03 (0.88 – 1.22) |
| Rate of growth | 0.01 (-0.03 – 0.06) |
| Doubling/halving time (days) | 98.5 (11.6 – -20.7) |
Figure 2: A.) Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of report. B.) Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection. C.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-09-02 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Estimates based on partial data have been adjusted for right truncation of infections. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation. Uncertainty has been curtailed to a maximum of ten times the maximum number of reported cases for plotting purposes.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| New confirmed cases by infection date | 6 (0 – 14) |
| Expected change in daily cases | Unsure |
| Effective reproduction no. | 0.99 (0.68 – 1.3) |
| Rate of growth | 0 (-0.08 – 0.09) |
| Doubling/halving time (days) | -177.9 (7.7 – -8.6) |
Figure 3: A.) Confirmed deaths by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of report. B.) Confirmed deaths by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection. C.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-09-02 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Estimates based on partial data have been adjusted for right truncation of infections. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation. Uncertainty has been curtailed to a maximum of ten times the maximum number of reported cases for plotting purposes.
Figure 3: Confirmed deaths with date of infection on the 2020-09-02 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light bar = 90% credible interval; dark bar = the 50% credible interval.). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily confirmed deaths and shaded based on the expected change in daily confirmeddeaths. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination. Uncertainty has been curtailed to a maximum of ten times the maximum number of reported cases for plotting purposes.
Figure 4: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed deaths. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-09-02 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Estimates based on partial data have been adjusted for right truncation of infections. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.
Figure 5: Confirmed deaths by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed deaths. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-09-02 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Estimates based on partial data have been adjusted for right truncation of infections. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation. Uncertainty has been curtailed to a maximum of ten times the maximum number of reported cases for plotting purposes.
Figure 6: Confirmed deaths by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of report (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed deaths. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-09-02 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Estimates based on partial data have been adjusted for right truncation of infections. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation. Uncertainty has been curtailed to a maximum of ten times the maximum number of reported cases for plotting purposes.
Figure 7: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-09-02 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Estimates based on partial data have been adjusted for right truncation of infections. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.
Figure 8: Confirmed deaths by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-09-02 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Estimates based on partial data have been adjusted for right truncation of infections. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation. Uncertainty has been curtailed to a maximum of ten times the maximum number of reported cases for plotting purposes.
Figure 9: Confirmed deaths by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of report (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-09-02 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Estimates based on partial data have been adjusted for right truncation of infections. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation. Uncertainty has been curtailed to a maximum of ten times the maximum number of reported cases for plotting purposes.
Abbott, Sam, Katharine Sherratt, Jonnie Bevan, Hamish Gibbs, Joel Hellewell, James Munday, Patrick Barks, Paul Campbell, Flavio Finger, and Sebastian Funk. 2020. “Covidregionaldata: Subnational Data for the Covid-19 Outbreak.” - - (-): –. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3957539.
Gibbs, Hamish, Sam Abbott, and Sebastian Funk. 2020. “RtD3: Rt Visualization in D3.” Zenodo - (-): –. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4011841.
Xu, Bo, Bernardo Gutierrez, Sarah Hill, Samuel Scarpino, Alyssa Loskill, Jessie Wu, Kara Sewalk, et al. n.d. “Epidemiological Data from the nCoV-2019 Outbreak: Early Descriptions from Publicly Available Data.” http://virological.org/t/epidemiological-data-from-the-ncov-2019-outbreak-early-descriptions-from-publicly-available-data/337.